Welcome to our Fantasy Premier League (FPL) guide for Gameweek 38!
Each gameweek, we'll highlight top picks to help you make the best decisions for your FPL team. For each gameweek, we'll focus on the following categories:
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Salah has scored 12 goals in home matches this season — the joint-highest among midfielders. He also leads the way for big chances (13) and expected goals (xG) at home (10.40), while only Semenyo (52) has had more shots in the box than his 48.
In terms of creativity, Salah tops the charts for FPL assists at home (seven), with only Palmer (13) and Saka (14) creating more big chances than his 12.
As the below image from our Opta Player Heatmaps feature shows, he has averaged 7.9 FPL points per home game this season.
Liverpool have scored 41 goals at home this season — more than any other team. They also rank second for both shots in the box (226) and xG with 39.59.
Their opponents, Crystal Palace, have conceded 24 goals in away matches — the sixth-highest total — but have managed seven clean sheets on the road. The Eagles rank 10th for both shots conceded (242) and expected goals conceded (xGC) at 28.59.
Our Predicted Points & Stats tool currently projects a score of 7.7 for Salah.
Watkins has found the back of the net thrice over the last six Gameweeks with only Wissa (five) more prolific amongst forwards over that period.
As shown in the below image from our Opta Stats Sandbox, the England international trails only Isak and Wissa (eight each) for 'big chances' (five) and is ranked fourth for shots in the box (12).
Villa have scored 12 goals over the last six Gameweeks with only Brentford (14) and Newcastle (16) faring better. The Midlands side are ranked second for 'big chances' (22) and third for xG (12.42) over that period.
Their hosts, Man Utd, have conceded 13 goals over the same period (17th) and have kept no clean sheets. The Red Devils are ranked fifth for shots conceded (58) and 13th for xGC (9.20).
Our Predicted Points & Stats tool currently projects a score of 4.7 for Watkins.
Bowen's total of four goals over the last six Gameweeks is only bettered by Eze (five) amongst midfielders. West Ham's talisman is ranked third for shots on target (six) and sixth for 'big chances' (four) over that period.
As the below image from our Match Centre feature shows, over their last five matches he is top amongst West Ham players for goals (four), xG (1.7), shots on target (five) and FPL assists (two).
West Ham have scored eight goals over the last six Gameweeks (ninth), the Hammers are ranked tenth for shots (71) and 13th for xG (7.15).
Their hosts Ipswich have conceded 14 goals over the aforementioned period with only Spurs (16) faring worse. The Tractor Boys are ranked 19th for shots in the box conceded (77) and 17th for xGC (11.18).
Our Predicted Points & Stats tool currently projects a score of 4.8 for Bowen.
Evanilson has scored only three of his 10 goals at the Vitality Stadium this season but his underlying numbers have been strong.
As shown in the below image from our Opta Stats Sandbox, despite just 1170 minutes, he is ranked seventh for shots in the box (35) and 11th for both 'big chances' (11) and xG (7.36) for forwards in home matches.
Bournemouth have scored 21 goals at home (15th) but the Cherries are ranked sixth for shots (289) and eighth for xG (34.63) on their own patch.
Their visitors Leicester have conceded 44 goals in away matches, more than any other side. The Foxes are ranked 19th for both shots in the box conceded (319) and xGC (42.47) on the road.
Our Predicted Points & Stats tool currently projects a score of 5.3 for Evanilson.
Kerkez has notched four FPL assists in home matches with only Hall (five) and Porro (six) faring better amongst defenders. Cucurella (95) and Murillo (78) are the only defenders to rack up more FPL points on home turf than his 74.
Bournemouth have conceded just 16 goals in home matches (third) and have kept six clean sheets. The Cherries are ranked 13th for shots in the box conceded (224) and 10th for xGC (24.36) at home.
Their visitors Leicester have scored just 18 goals on their travels with only Everton (15) and Southampton (13) faring worse. The Foxes are ranked bottom for shots in the box (101) and xG (17.43) in away matches.
Our Predicted Points & Stats tool currently projects a 50% probability of a Bournemouth clean sheet and a score of 5.0 for Kerkez.
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